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12/07/2022
Criteria for Classifying Forecasting Methods
Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" ...
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09/15/2022
On the detrimental effect of invariances in the likelihood for variational inference
Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying appr...
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06/29/2022
Intrinsic Anomaly Detection for Multi-Variate Time Series
We introduce a novel, practically relevant variation of the anomaly dete...
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03/21/2022
Diverse Counterfactual Explanations for Anomaly Detection in Time Series
Data-driven methods that detect anomalies in times series data are ubiqu...
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02/23/2022
Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster
We propose Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster (MQF^2), a global p...
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01/18/2022
Online Time Series Anomaly Detection with State Space Gaussian Processes
We propose r-ssGPFA, an unsupervised online anomaly detection model for ...
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12/29/2021
Monte Carlo EM for Deep Time Series Anomaly Detection
Time series data are often corrupted by outliers or other kinds of anoma...
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11/12/2021
Learning Quantile Functions without Quantile Crossing for Distribution-free Time Series Forecasting
Quantile regression is an effective technique to quantify uncertainty, f...
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09/10/2021
A Study of Joint Graph Inference and Forecasting
We study a recent class of models which uses graph neural networks (GNNs...
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07/16/2021
Neural Contextual Anomaly Detection for Time Series
We introduce Neural Contextual Anomaly Detection (NCAD), a framework for...
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06/08/2021
Detecting Anomalous Event Sequences with Temporal Point Processes
Automatically detecting anomalies in event data can provide substantial ...
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07/30/2020
Anomaly Detection at Scale: The Case for Deep Distributional Time Series Models
This paper introduces a new methodology for detecting anomalies in time ...
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05/20/2020
The Effectiveness of Discretization in Forecasting: An Empirical Study on Neural Time Series Models
Time series modeling techniques based on deep learning have seen many ad...
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04/21/2020
Neural forecasting: Introduction and literature overview
Neural network based forecasting methods have become ubiquitous in large...
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10/07/2019
High-Dimensional Multivariate Forecasting with Low-Rank Gaussian Copula Processes
Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time seri...
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06/12/2019
GluonTS: Probabilistic Time Series Models in Python
We introduce Gluon Time Series (GluonTS)[<https://gluon-ts.mxnet.io>], a...
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05/28/2019
Deep Factors for Forecasting
Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/o...
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09/22/2017
Approximate Bayesian Inference in Linear State Space Models for Intermittent Demand Forecasting at Scale
We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear st...
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04/13/2017
DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks
A key enabler for optimizing business processes is accurately estimating...
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12/10/2014