Long-Term Mobile Traffic Forecasting Using Deep Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks
share
Forecasting with high accuracy the volume of data traffic that mobile users will consume is becoming increasingly important for precision traffic engineering, demand-aware network resource allocation, as well as public transportation. Measurements collection in dense urban deployments is however complex and expensive, and the post-processing required to make predictions is highly non-trivial, given the intricate spatio-temporal variability of mobile traffic due to user mobility. To overcome these challenges, in this paper we harness the exceptional feature extraction abilities of deep learning and propose a Spatio-Temporal neural Network (STN) architecture purposely designed for precise network-wide mobile traffic forecasting. We present a mechanism that fine tunes the STN and enables its operation with only limited ground truth observations. We then introduce a Double STN technique (D-STN), which uniquely combines the STN predictions with historical statistics, thereby making faithful long-term mobile traffic projections. Experiments we conduct with real-world mobile traffic data sets, collected over 60 days in both urban and rural areas, demonstrate that the proposed (D-)STN schemes perform up to 10-hour long predictions with remarkable accuracy, irrespective of the time of day when they are triggered. Specifically, our solutions achieve up to 61 smaller prediction errors as compared to widely used forecasting approaches, while operating with up to 600 times shorter measurement intervals.
READ FULL TEXT