These Unprecedented Times: The Dynamic Pattern Of COVID-19 Deaths Around The World
share
In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and death cases, we utilize the modified kernel estimator for random density function (Petersen and Muller, 2016) to obtain the density of the mortality rate, and apply Frechet change point detection (Dubey and Muller, 2020) to check if there is any significant change on the dynamic pattern of COVID-19 deaths. The analysis shows that the pattern of global COVID-19 mortality rate seems to have an obvious change at 104 days after first day when the reported death cases exceed 30. Then we discuss the reasons of abrupt change of mortality rate trend from aspects both subjective and objective.
READ FULL TEXT