Very Highly Skilled Individuals Do Not Choke Under Pressure: Evidence from Professional Darts
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Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure situations is of importance in designing and managing workplaces, but also in other areas of society such as disaster management or professional sports. For simple effort tasks, an increase in the pressure experienced by an individual, e.g. due to incentive schemes in a workplace, will increase the effort put into the task and hence in most cases also the performance. For the more complex and usually harder to capture case of skill tasks, there exists a substantial body of literature that fairly consistently reports a choking phenomenon under pressure. However, we argue that many of the corresponding studies have crucial limitations, such as neglected interaction effects or insufficient numbers of observations to allow within-individual analysis. Here, we investigate performance under pressure in professional darts as a near-ideal setting with no direct interaction between players and a high number of observations per subject. We analyze almost one year of tournament data covering 23,192 dart throws, hence a data set that is very much larger than those used in most previous studies. Contrary to what would be expected given the evidence in favor of a choking phenomenon, we find strong evidence for an overall improved performance under pressure, for nearly all 83 players in the sample. These results could have important consequences for our understanding of how highly skilled individuals deal with high-pressure situations.
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