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07/07/2023
Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice to Carbon Emissions
Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas con...
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06/21/2022
Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice: Glide Charts for Feature-Engineered Linear Regression and Machine Learning Models
We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast ...
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03/08/2022
On Robust Inference in Time Series Regression
Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation con...
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03/08/2022
When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace...
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01/25/2021
Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent
We propose a simple statistical approach for fixed-target forecasting of...
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12/21/2020
On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates
We propose methods for constructing regularized mixtures of density fore...
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08/13/2020
On the Origin(s) of the Term "Big Data"
I investigate the origin(s) of the term "Big Data," in industry and acad...
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03/31/2020
Optimal Combination of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Measures: A Dynamic Factor Modeling Approach
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate c...
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12/23/2019
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pac...
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07/15/2019