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04/24/2023
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions
In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting...
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01/28/2022
Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States
The U.S. COVID-19 Forecast Hub aggregates forecasts of the short-term bu...
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05/26/2020
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization and death...
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03/12/2020
A marginal moment matching approach for fitting endemic-epidemic models to underreported disease surveillance counts
Count data are often subject to underreporting, especially in infectious...
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10/16/2019
A new INARMA(1, 1) model with Poisson marginals
We suggest an INARMA(1, 1) model with Poisson marginals which extends th...
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10/01/2019
An extended note on the multibin logarithmic score used in the FluSight competitions
In recent years the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) hav...
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01/10/2019
Multivariate endemic-epidemic models with higher-order lags and an application to outbreak detection
Multivariate time series models are an important tool for the analysis o...
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12/17/2018